Following the news that Chinese and US trade delegates reached a preliminary trade deal framework in Kuala Lumpur, the market is growing optimistic that the planned 100% tariffs will not take effect on November 1st. This may reduce the actual volume booked by traditional B2B shippers. However, space constraints are predicted to continue for JFK and ORD lanes due to persistently strong demand.

Key factors driving this demand include:  

1. E-commerce Platforms: Major platforms are pushing out large volumes in preparation for Black Friday, helping to keep air freight rates at a high level.

2. Market Restocking: Ongoing restocking by Novelis continues to constrain space and maintain high rates to ORD and JFK.

3. High-Value Goods: Products like Apple electronics are securing direct air space to ORD and JFK to meet Black Friday demand, which is a major factor in sustaining the high rate level.

That said, high air freight costs have deterred some price-sensitive shipments from both e-commerce platforms and traditional B2B shippers. Should rates remain above the $7.0/KG level, these players may further draw back their volumes, which could, in turn, push airlines to adjust their pricing.

Considering the variables in play later this week—including the final tariff decision and the potential volume reduction from major shippers—we will continue to monitor how rates develop.